Current situation and forecast of paper and paperb

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Analysis on the current situation and forecast of paper and paperboard in the development

I. The overall development level of paper and paperboard

1 Development focus

in recent years, printing technology has increasingly moved towards refinement, high-speed and automation. As the main printing consumables, paper has not stopped in terms of printing performance and new product development, and products have been launched continuously

⑴ development direction of printing culture paper

at present, printing paper is mainly letterpress paper, paper, offset paper, coated paper, etc. the quality of paper, offset paper and coated paper has been continuously improved in recent years. The domestic market of paper and offset paper has seen the situation that production exceeds sales. At the same time, the domestic market began to pay attention to some new products

① uncoated high-grade printing paper without ground wood pulp. At present, almost all uncoated printing papers without ground wood pulp are made by alkali process and a large number of calcium carbonate fillers are used. The performance of this kind of paper has been developing towards brighter and whiter. The brightness of uncoated printing paper without ground wood pulp produced in Brazil, Europe and Asia in South America has reached 94o ~ 96O, and the whiteness is 150%. This kind of paper has not only good printability and higher optical properties, but also excellent imaging quality by inkjet, laser printing and electrostatic copying. American International Paper Corporation has announced that it will expand its color loktm patented technology from only producing HP trademark paper products to producing IP trademark paper products. Hewlett Packard also plans to sell this technology to other uncoated non wood pulp and paper mills

② alternative paper without wood pulp paper. The substitute paper without wood mill pulp generally uses a large amount of mechanical wood pulp, supplemented by fillers and light weight sizing, pressing and coating. The finished paper can replace the uncoated high-grade paper for traditional purposes. Mechanical wood pulp can also increase the loose thickness of the paper. For the same paper thickness, the paper weight can be reduced by about 10%. The brightness of this alternative paper is equivalent to that of uncoated non wood pulp paper. Alternative paper products that have been introduced include offset web paper of alternative offset and equal offset brands of Abitibi company, and constant speed control error ≤ 5% brand printing paper of bowhybrid products of American Bowater company

③ coated offset paper (FCO paper) and metering sizing press light coated paper. This is a kind of high value-added paper, which is produced by the process of metered sizing, pressing, coating and heating soft calendering. The mechanical pulp content of the base paper used is high. Compared with uncoated super calendered paper (SC paper), FCO paper has better printability in thermosetting offset printing, is more suitable for gravure printing, and can reflect excellent smoothness and gloss. FCO paper is replacing uncoated SC paper and LWC paper, especially when used as newspaper insert advertising and low priced magazine paper

④ coating offset printing paper. The continuous development of thermosetting offset printing and the growth of postage have driven the market demand for ultra light weight coated paper (ulwc paper). At the same time, it is also a challenge to the paper's penetration resistance and opacity. In response to the growing demand for high-quality image printing, prepress and printing technology are developing towards the use of fine processing technology and fine printing

⑤ the prospect of digital printing paper is promising. As a new printing mode, digital printing is developing rapidly. Continuous wide width inkjet printing business growth and quality improvement (close to the offset level), from sheet fed to web paper expansion. It will be used in the printing of newspapers and magazines, so a new kind of paper with cationic surface properties is needed

the constant changes of direct mail advertising and financial media will bring the demand for new multi-functional paper. In order to realize preprint and variable data printing on high-speed printing production line, the paper used must have high-quality multi-color printing performance suitable for both offset printing and digital printing. At present, there is no paper to meet this demand in the market. This will be a market field that needs to be developed urgently and is expected to develop rapidly

⑵ development direction of packaging paper

among the four pillar packaging materials of paper, plastic, metal and glass, paper products have the fastest growth because of its cheapest price and recyclability. At present, the development trend of paper packaging materials in China is as follows

① high quality and lightweight packaging paper, paperboard and carton board. In order to make full use of resources and reduce the cost of mailing and transportation as much as possible, the production of low quantity paper, paperboard and packaging carton paperboard is the development trend of paper wall insulation in the world as a key product of building energy conservation. China has put forward low quantity problems in paper, letterpress and offset printing paper, paper bag paper, etc., and has begun to solve them. High quality, light weight and variety diversification should also be realized in packaging paper, paperboard and other products. In particular, the corrugated base paper and kraft linerboard with the largest consumption. According to the large demand for high-grade packaging boxes in the domestic market, three low quantitative products should be added on the premise of properly improving the original product quality, that is, 100g/m2 of corrugated base paper and 210g/m2 and 200g/M2 of kraft board

② develop functional special cardboard for food packaging. At present, there is a single variety of white board in China, which is not classified to distinguish different packaging materials, and there is no special food packaging board for different food needs. In the future, we should develop and produce functional special paperboard for packaging different foods

③ developing fast-food boxes with plant fiber, and developing fast-food boxes with rice straw, wheat straw, bagasse, bran shell and other crop fibers as raw materials are competitive and have good economic and social benefits

④ develop natural green packaging materials. Natural plant fibers can be rolled or woven to make packaging bags and boxes. After adding a little adhesive, it can be made into buffer packaging of different shapes

⑤ develop special cardboard for disposable tableware based on straw pulp. Based on China's raw material resources, certain technologies are adopted to ensure that its performance is close to the physical properties of wood pulp. The surface of the paperboard is treated for food packaging, so that the finished paperboard has the functions of hot water resistance, no leakage, no layering, oil resistance and heat sealing. This alternative to some paper products can alleviate the increasingly tense problem of pulp raw materials

⑥ develop and apply honeycomb paperboard. At present, the products include lsqi composite packaging box, lsoii full honeycomb paperboard packaging box, which are often introduced by the third party, and lsoii lined packaging box. Compared with the weight of corrugated boxes of the same specification, the paperboard can be saved by 60%. This new type of carton will become an ideal packaging for China's export commodities

⑦ develop and apply pulp molding. Product pulp molding is a three-dimensional papermaking technology. It takes waste paper as raw material and molds a certain shape of paper products on a molding machine. At present, it is developing rapidly

2. Development level

in recent years, China's paper industry has enjoyed a strong growth momentum, basically balanced production and marketing, and good overall benefits. The output and consumption of paper and paperboard have increased year by year. Since 2001, it has maintained the second position in the world after the United States, and has become a large country in the production and consumption of paper and paperboard. By the end of 2008, there were about 3500 paper-making enterprises in China. While the output increased year by year, the products were developing towards high-grade and multi variety, and a number of paper-making enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons emerged, such as Shandong Chenming, Jiangsu Jindong, Shandong Taiyang, Shandong Huatai, UPM Sichuan and other large enterprises

in recent years, the output of paper and paperboard has continued to rise. According to the operation of major industrial industries in 2008 released by the Ministry of industry and information technology, China's paper industry completed 83.9 million tons of machine-made paper and paperboard in 2008, an increase of 8.75% year-on-year. Among them, the paper output reached 4.61 million tons, including 14million tons of uncoated printing and writing paper, 4.5 million tons of coated paper, 1million tons of light-weight coated paper, 11million tons of white board paper and 15.5 million tons of box board paper (the changes over the years are shown in Table 1). China's per capita paper consumption increased from 5.1kg in 1978 to 64kg in 2008 (see Table 2). In 2008, the import of paper and paperboard was 3.56 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.24%. The import of paper and paperboard began to decline in 2005, with a decline of 14.58% in 2005, 15.84% in 2006 and 9.07% in 2007. The types of decline include: paper, writing and printing paper, kraft paper, corrugated paper, machine and instrument paper, wallpaper, King's paper, paperboard, transfer paper, adhesive paper, etc. The increased varieties include toilet paper and cigarette paper. The export of paper and paperboard was 4.12 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.47%. There are also declining varieties: paper, writing and printing paper, kraft paper, corrugated paper, handmade paper, cardboard, transfer paper, etc. The increased varieties include: toilet paper, cigarette paper, machine and instrument paper, wallpaper, adhesive paper, etc

the paper industry has driven the sustained and high-speed development of the utilization of lithium batteries represented by the storage, transmission and utilization of new energy, which stems from the new construction and expansion projects of China's paper industry in recent years. These projects have high technological starting points, advanced equipment, large-scale single machine production lines, high production concentration, and strong competitiveness in output and product quality. By absorbing foreign advanced paper technology and management experience, the industrial structure is adjusted in time, It has improved China's papermaking technology and management level, the quality and product grade of domestic paper, and the competitiveness of domestic paper in the international market

at present, the quality of domestic publishing and printing paper has been fundamentally improved. Its excellent cost performance has greatly attracted the publishing and printing industry, and significantly improved the localization rate of printing paper in China's publishing and printing industry. At the same time, the output, quality and grade of domestic coated paper are also improving, the varieties are increasing, and the market is also expanding. The survey shows that the printing plants have been able to accept the domestic coated paper completely, and are basically satisfied. The localization rate of coated paper for printing has exceeded 80%; It has contributed to the colorization and refinement of printed matter

II. Problems in development

as paper and paperboard consumption are closely related to economic growth, the decline in GDP growth will have an impact on the growth of paper and paperboard consumption. It is expected that the prosperity of the paper industry will continue to decline in the first half of 2009, and will improve with the warming of the general environment in the second half of 2009. Cultural paper is less affected by economic fluctuations and its demand is relatively stable; The pressure of coated paper comes from the reduction of export and the increase of production capacity; The white paperboard declined most significantly due to the impact of new production capacity; It will take time for paper to get out of the trough; Boxboard is significantly affected by economic fluctuations, and the economic downturn will continue

on the other hand, except that the price of paper continued to rise, with the highest price of 5600 yuan/ton in 2008 (an increase of more than 1000 yuan per ton compared with 2007, and the price in 2009 may fall to the level of 2007, or even lower), the prices of all major types of paper fell to varying degrees. Affected by the lower demand, coated paper also saw a decline of 300 ~ 600 yuan/ton, and even a decline of more than 800 yuan/ton; Cultural paper such as offset printing paper and light weight coated paper also dropped by 200 ~ 300 yuan/ton respectively, and high-grade offset printing paper even dropped by 500 yuan/ton; As for the packaging paper and paperboard, the price of white paperboard and white paperboard fell sharply. The price of white paperboard fell by 300 yuan/ton, while the price of white paperboard fell by 600 yuan/ton. In accordance with the "light industry adjustment and revitalization plan" issued by the State Council in february2009, if the export tax rebate rate is increased in a large area, paper may obtain more space for export tax rebate. In response to the global financial crisis, the government has increased investment to stimulate domestic demand. It is expected that the demand for wrapping paper will increase significantly, and the consumption of cultural paper and household paper will also increase steadily with the economic recovery

III. Development Forecast of paper and paperboard

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