- Detail

Analysis of the production and marketing situation of the paper industry

1 the operation of the domestic paper industry from January to September 2006 and the annual forecast

1.1 production completion

from the production statistics of paper enterprises above Designated Size, the production volume of the domestic paper industry has increased steadily, but the growth rate is still a relatively high year. From January to September, the pulp production reached 18.5818 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 31.81%; The production of paper and paperboard reached 49.4165 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 28.28%; The production and marketing rate of paper and paperboard products was 97.69%, an increase of 0.53 percentage points over the same period last year

1.2 completion of economic indicators

according to the statistics of Enterprises above Designated Size in the National Pulp and paper industry, the total industrial output value from January to September was 365.862 billion yuan, an increase of 25.88% year-on-year; The sales revenue was 352.485 billion yuan, an increase of 26.82% year-on-year; The total profit and tax was 30.411 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 36.16%, of which the total profit was 17.74 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 45.53%

among them, the total industrial output value of pulp manufacturing industry from January to September was 11.067 billion yuan, an increase of 27.49% year-on-year; The sales revenue was 9.979 billion yuan, an increase of 20.91% year-on-year; The total profit and tax was 990 million yuan, an increase of 140.83% year on year; The total profit was 589 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6940.92%

paper and paperboard production enterprises completed a total industrial output value of 225.501 billion yuan from January to September, an increase of 24.98% year-on-year; The sales revenue was 219.506 billion yuan, an increase of 26.49% year-on-year; The total profits and taxes were 18.623 billion yuan, an increase of 30.35% year-on-year; The total profit was 10.408 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.71%

from January to September, paper products manufacturing enterprises completed a total industrial output value of 129.294 billion yuan, an increase of 27.35% year-on-year; The sales revenue was 123 billion yuan, an increase of 27.92% year-on-year; The total profit and tax was 10.799 billion yuan, an increase of 41.41% year on year; The total profit was 6.742 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.59%

in the first nine months, the total production of paper and paperboard reached 49.4165 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 28.28%, the product sales revenue increased by 26.49%, and the total profit increased by 36.71%. According to the segmentation of paper production, sales revenue and total profit in the previous nine months, the output of paper and paperboard in the first quarter reached 14.5706 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 33.12%, and the product sales revenue increased. Only in this way can it be regarded as high-quality equipment with a 27.38% increase in total profit of 11.90%; In the second quarter, the output of paper and paperboard reached 17.1005 million tons, an increase of 27.77% over the previous year's 13.3835 million tons, and the product sales revenue increased by 28 12%, and the total profit increased by 38 5 9 1 ％； In the third quarter, the output of paper and paperboard reached 17.7454 million tons, an increase of 25.02% over the previous year's 14.1936 million tons, the product sales revenue increased by 19.47%, and the total profit increased by 55.512%. It can be seen from the above data that the profit of paper and paperboard products increased the most in 2006, indicating that the cost of paper and paperboard production enterprises has decreased or the sales price has increased

according to the relevant data of the first nine months provided by the National Bureau of statistics, although the National Pulp, paper and paper products production enterprises achieved the synchronous growth of benefits and speed in 2006, we can still see the following problems from the data: China (1) the growth rate of paper and paperboard production accelerated. From January to September, the output of paper and paperboard increased by 28.28% year-on-year, 19.05 percentage points higher than the 9.23% increase in the same period in 2005

(2) the loss of loss making enterprises increased. From January to September, the total loss of pulp, paper and paper products production enterprises reached 2.469 billion yuan, an increase of 10.58% over the same period last year, of which the loss of pulp manufacturing industry was 112 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 58.78%, the loss of paper and paperboard production enterprises was 1.865 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.85%, and the loss of paper products industry was 493 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.79%; (3) Finished goods inventory increased. From January to September, the inventory of finished products in pulp, paper and paper products industry reached 27.523 billion yuan, an increase of 13.41% over the same period last year, of which the inventory of finished products in pulp manufacturing industry was 1.113 billion yuan, an increase of 26.62%, the inventory of finished products in paper and paperboard manufacturing enterprises was 18.981 billion yuan, an increase of 11.45% year on year, and the inventory of finished products in paper industry was 7.429 billion yuan, an increase of 16.85%; (4) Net accounts receivable increased. The net accounts receivable of pulp, paper and paper products enterprises from January to September totaled 63.320 billion yuan, an increase of 19.59% over the same period last year. Among them, the net accounts receivable of pulp manufacturing industry was 2.803 billion yuan, an increase of 7.65%, the net accounts receivable of paper and paperboard production enterprises was 34.720 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.53%, and the net accounts receivable of paper products industry was 25.797 billion yuan, an increase of 12.64%; Judging from the current statistical data in China, these problems and reasons should attract the attention of all paper-making enterprises. At the same time, relevant enterprises also need to study and analyze the changes in market demand

according to the production and development trend of domestic paper enterprises in the first nine months, it is estimated that the total production of paper and paperboard in 2006 will reach about 64 million tons, with an increase of about 14%; The consumption is about 65.5 million tons, with an increase of about 11%. The domestic production in 2007 is expected to exceed 67million tons

1.3 import and export of paper and paperboard

according to the analysis of the statistical data of the customs, China imported 5.2465 million tons of all kinds of paper and paperboard in 2005, a year-on-year decrease of 14.58%

from January to September 2006, 3.3752 million tons of paper and paperboard were imported, a decrease of 16.20% over the same period last year. Among them, the import volume in the first quarter was 1.0122 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.43%; In the second quarter, the import was 1.113 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 22.48%; In the third quarter, the import was 1.1421 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.65%, showing a downward trend from January to September. Among the imported products, except for packaging paper (72600 tons imported, with a year-on-year increase of 25.36%), special paper and paperboard (330500 tons imported, with a year-on-year increase of 10.68%), the other varieties decreased to varying degrees, including 10900 tons of paper imported, with a year-on-year decrease of 91.18%; The import of coated paper was 343800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.92%; The import of carton board was 848100 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19.91%; The import of white paperboard and white cardboard was 585400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17.72%; The import of corrugated base paper was 544300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15.07%

according to the import trend in the first nine months of 2006, it is expected that the total import volume of the whole year will decrease by about 15% over the previous year, and the total import volume will be about 4.5 million tons. China's paper exports in the past nine months have grown rapidly. According to statistics, the total export volume from January to September 2005 was 1410100 tons, and the annual export was 1938100 tons. From January to September 2006, the cumulative export of paper and paperboard was 2345200 tons, an increase of 66.31% over the same period last year, of which 599200 tons were exported in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 56.87%; In the second quarter, the export was 786400 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 60.29%; In the third quarter, the export was 959500 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 78.53%. The total export volume in the first nine months has exceeded the total export volume in 2005. Based on the export trend in the first nine months, China is expected to export more than 3million tons in 2006

1.4 import and export of commercial pulp and waste paper

with the continuous development of China's paper industry, the import volume of commercial wood pulp and waste paper used as paper raw materials was still large in 2006. In 2005, the import of all kinds of commercial pulp was 7.5916 million tons, an increase of 3.72% over the previous year. From January to September 2006, 6.1195 million tons of all kinds of commercial pulp were imported, an increase of 45% over 5.6651 million tons in the same period last year 44000 tons, an increase of 8 0.2%, and the monthly average import volume is 679900 tons. In the first quarter, the import was 2130900 tons, an increase of 4.12% year-on-year; In the second quarter, imports were 1.9795 million tons, an increase of 9.33% year-on-year; In the third quarter, imports were 2.091 million tons, an increase of 11.13% year-on-year

it is estimated that the annual import volume in 2006 will be about 8.1 million tons

in 2005, the import of waste paper was 17.03 million tons, an increase of 38.46% over the previous year. From January to September 2006, the import of all kinds of waste paper reached 14.6349 million tons, an increase of 2.1962 million tons over the same period of the previous year, with a year-on-year increase of 17.66%. The monthly average import volume was 1.6261 million tons. Among them, the import of 4.8698 million tons in the first quarter increased by 26.01% year-on-year; In the second quarter, the import volume was 5.034 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 15.51%; In the third quarter, imports were 4.7618 million tons, an increase of 12.24% year-on-year. The total import volume continued to show an upward trend

it is estimated that the import of waste paper will reach 20million tons in 2006

China's export volume of commercial pulp and waste paper is very small. From January to September 2006, China exported 46800 tons of all kinds of commercial pulp, an increase of 29.60% over the same period last year, but the total volume is not large; The export of waste paper was only 38.82 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 68.53%. This situation also shows that with the increase of China's total production of paper and paperboard, the demand for papermaking raw materials and the dependence on imported raw materials continue to increase

2 production and consumption of major varieties of new paper and paperboard

2.1 paper

in 2006, the paper market should be said to be prosperous in both production and sales, but it is one of the products with a large price decline

according to statistics, from January to September 2006, domestic paper production completed 2.9607 million tons, an increase of 464800 tons over 2.4959 million tons in the same period last year, an increase of 18.93% year-on-year. From January to September, the imported paper was 11000 tons, 12% higher than that of the same period of the previous year 380000 tons, a decrease of 113000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 91.18%; Paper exports reached 196700 tons from January to September 2006, an increase of 15.7 times over the previous year

from January to September 2006, the average CIF import price of paper was US $549, while the average FOB export price was US $532. It can be seen that the import and export prices have been basically the same. If the comprehensive transportation and other costs, it can be said that the export price has been higher than the import price

according to the domestic paper production, import and export, it is estimated that the domestic paper production in 2006 will be about 3.9 million tons, the import will be about 20000 tons, the export will be about 300000 tons, and the annual consumption is expected to be about 3.6 million tons. It is estimated that the domestic paper production in 2007 will exceed 4.5 million tons, and the export volume will increase compared with this year

as the main consumables of newspapers, the production and sales of paper in the first nine months of 2006 should be said to be booming, but the product price has been reduced from about 5000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to about 4500 yuan/ton at present. It is worth mentioning here that due to the growth of paper production in 2006 and the expected pressure of subsequent new machine capacity increases such as Shandong Huatai Paper Industry and Chenming paper industry, the domestic paper market competition is becoming increasingly fierce, but domestic paper production enterprises (such as Huatai, Nanping Paper, Guangzhou paper, etc.) can adjust market sales strategies in time according to market changes, increase export sales, and improve the supply and demand situation of the domestic paper market, At present, the paper market price has stabilized

2.2 book and periodical paper

in recent years, the publishing and distribution of books and periodicals in China has been relatively stable. Therefore, the production, sales and market price of domestic book and periodical printing paper are also relatively stable, with little fluctuation

according to the statistics of the General Administration of publishing, there were 220000 kinds of books in China in 2005, with a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. The total number of copies printed was 6.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. The total number of printed sheets was 49.3 billion, an increase of 6% over 2004, equivalent to 1.16 million tons of paper, an increase of 5.91% year-on-year; In 2005, there were 9468 periodicals nationwide, a year-on-year decrease of 0.23%. The total number of copies printed was 2.759 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.68%. The total number of printed sheets was 12.526 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 13.35%, equivalent to 294400 tons of paper, and clips that must use special materials, with a year-on-year increase of 13.36%. Taken together, the total number of printed sheets was 61.826 billion, an increase of 7.24% over 2004, equivalent to 1454400 tons of paper, an increase of 7.36% over 2004. Until it is successfully online,

according to the distribution of books and periodicals in 2005 provided by the General Administration of publication, book distribution can maintain continuous growth. However, the number of sci-tech periodicals in periodicals has decreased, which should be paid attention to by paper-making enterprises, because the number of sci-tech periodicals accounts for more than half of the total number of Periodicals after all

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