Analysis on the prospect of charging pile construc

2022-10-23
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Analysis on the prospect of charging pile construction in 2018 the construction of charging piles will advance steadily in the future

according to the data released by the China Association of automobile industry for closing the small oil delivery valve, the cumulative production of new energy vehicles in 2017 was 794000, with a year-on-year increase of 68.5; In the same year, 777000 vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 56.8%. It can be seen that the new energy vehicle industry is in a period of rapid development. According to the estimate of the automobile industry association, by the end of 2017, the ownership of new energy vehicles in China was 1.8 million, accounting for half of the world's ownership of new energy vehicles

chart 1: 2015-2017 new energy vehicle production and sales and year-on-year growth rate

source: the forward looking Industry Research Institute of the China Association of automobile manufacturers collated

the data released by the China Association of automobile manufacturers showed that by the end of 2017, China had built 210000 public charging piles, with the ownership ranking first in the world; At the same time, the speed of intercity high-speed charging stations has been increased, and more than 1400 charging stations have been built to serve 31000 kilometers of high-speed kilometers

chart 2: Construction of public charging piles and charging stations at the end of 2017

source: the forward looking Industry Research Institute sorted out

according to the guiding opinions on the construction of electric vehicle charging infrastructure issued by the general office of the State Council, by 2020, China will basically build an intelligent and efficient charging infrastructure system that is more difficult than before, accompanied by piles, and can meet the charging needs of more than 5million electric vehicles, By then, 4.8 million decentralized charging piles will need to be built. According to the planning made in the guiding opinions, the ratio of car and car pile should be 1:1; In the above analysis, the ratio of the number of new energy vehicles in China to the number of public charging piles is 8.6:1, and the growth of the number of public charging piles is far from keeping up with the growth of the number of cars

the profit model of public charging piles has not been established, and it is difficult for enterprises producing public charging piles to have enthusiasm.

most domestic public charging piles have their own charging stations or rely on various parking lots. Now, the construction of public charging piles is mostly concentrated in the first and second tier cities. In order to ensure the convenience of "Endurance" of new energy vehicles, it is bound to make requirements for the number and distribution density of public charging piles. In the "guiding opinions on the construction of electric vehicle charging infrastructure", it is also mentioned that the radiation distance of charging piles should not be greater than 0.9 km

and the first and second tier cities are places where every inch of land is worth an inch of money. On the one hand, charging stations will face high rents, and the high rents and charging service fees will be shared with consumers, which is bound to hit consumers' enthusiasm for charging. On the other hand, charging piles rely on all kinds of parking lots. Parking lots and enterprises providing charging piles will share the service fees charged. However, due to the slow battery life, the car takes a long time to charge, and the share charged by the parking lot cannot cover the original parking revenue. For example, in the first tier cities, the charging standard of the parking lot is 20 yuan/hour, but in the cooperation project with the enterprises producing charging piles, because the car charging time is long, the shared income obtained cannot even cover the income of pure car parking at the same time. This will reduce the enthusiasm of parking lot cooperation. Therefore, the loss of charging pile enterprises has become the norm, which is bound to affect the construction of charging piles

there is no corresponding clear standard for land use and electricity charges in the construction of charging piles, and the construction of charging piles in residential areas is difficult.

in the construction of charging piles, in addition to the construction of public charging piles, the construction of private charging piles is also very important for the development of the new energy vehicle industry, because private charging piles naturally bring higher convenience to consumers, The construction of charging piles in the community is a very important field of private charging pile construction. However, the construction of charging piles in the community faces great difficulties. On the one hand, because of the shortage of parking spaces in the community, the construction of charging piles is difficult to achieve scale effect, and the construction cost of charging piles is very high. However, the government has no corresponding policy to set standards for the land use and charging of charging piles, which makes it very difficult for the community property to charge charging piles. If it is raised, it will be afraid of being complained, and if it is lowered, it will not be able to maintain the operation, which directly attacks the enthusiasm of the community to build charging piles

the cost of household charging piles is high, which is difficult for new energy vehicle consumers to bear.

the construction of household charging piles is another very important area of private charging pile construction. However, the construction of household charging piles requires the purchase of expanded containers and re routing, and the overall cost is tens of thousands of yuan. The high cost directly attacks the enthusiasm of new energy vehicles to install household charging piles

automatic shutdown protection

the improvement of battery life of new energy vehicles will bring about an inflection point for the profitability of charging pile enterprises.

according to the data of the analysis report on the market prospect and investment strategic planning of China's electric vehicle charging station industry from 2018 to 2023 by the forward looking Industry Research Institute, the cost of charging stations can be divided into three parts: infrastructure cost, distribution facility cost and operation cost. According to the monitoring of the prospective industry research institute, to establish a charging station, the infrastructure cost is 2.4 million yuan, the operation cost is 210000 yuan, the distribution facility cost is 1.92 million yuan, and the distribution facility maintenance cost is 60000 yuan, a total of 4.59 million yuan. The battery life is directly related to the cost recovery of the charging station. The stronger the battery life is, the more electricity the battery stores per unit time, and the more revenue the charging station can generate per unit time

if the battery endurance can reach more than 70kva in half an hour, I hope it can help you!, Then the cost recovery period of the charging station can be controlled within 6 years, and if the battery life can be more than 15 minutes and 70kva, then the cost recovery period of the charging station can be controlled within 3 years

in 2018, the state issued an announcement to readjust the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles in two directions: on the one hand, it raised the threshold of subsidies, such as vehicles with a range of more than 100km can receive subsidies; on the other hand, it reduced subsidies for vehicles with low range, and increased subsidies for vehicles with high range. The promulgation of this subsidy policy is bound to accelerate the survival of the fittest in the new energy vehicle industry, and is also conducive to improving the vehicle's endurance mileage, but can not bypass the need to improve the battery's endurance. Therefore, in the future, it will be a trend that the battery endurance of new energy vehicles will be stronger and stronger. The stronger the battery endurance, the shorter the cost recovery period of the charging station, and it can also speed up the profitability of the charging station, which will bring the inflection point of the profitability of the charging pile enterprise

chart 3: composition of charging station infrastructure, distribution facilities and operating costs (unit: 10000 yuan, 10000 yuan/year,%)

Chart 4: sensitivity analysis of charging station cost recovery and battery endurance capacity (unit: times, yuan/degree, 10000 degrees/year, 10000 yuan, year)

because the profit model of charging piles has not been established, China's market forces are not excited about building charging piles, Therefore, in such a difficult situation, only the government can try its best to mobilize market forces to participate in the construction of charging piles only if it shows its credibility, runs up with financial resources, matches the construction of charging piles with land requirements and charging standards, and eliminates the concerns of community property

in this regard, the practice of our government at the current stage can be said to be commendable. Taking Shenzhen as an example, when choosing a microcomputer controlled pressure testing machine, we can refer to the above standards for considering equipment quality to decide that the Shenzhen municipal government recently issued the "Shenzhen new energy vehicle development work plan" and "several policies and measures for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in Shenzhen", The announcement made arrangements for the construction of charging facilities

in the future, the government should also refine the detailed rules for the installation, maintenance and management of charging piles, so that the market has a basis to follow. Only in this way can we actively mobilize market forces to participate in the construction of charging piles

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