The hottest machine replacement is in the ascendan

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Machine replacement is in the ascendant, and domestic industrial robots are expected to overtake in corners

market space: China's industrial robots will have a cumulative market size of nearly 400billion yuan in the next three years, and the prospect of machine replacement is broad

China has become the world's largest sales country of industrial robots in terms of the folding strength of plugs, leads and wires for the special experiment of this experimental machine. In 2017, China sold 138000 industrial robots, accounting for 35.66% of the global robot sales; The density of robots has increased rapidly, reaching 88 units/10000 people in 2017, which has exceeded the global average, but there is still a big gap from Japan, South Korea and other developed countries. In the future, the number of industrial robots will continue to grow rapidly under the dual stimulation of the continuous rise in human costs and the continuous decline in robot prices. It is estimated that the cumulative market size of China in the next three years will be nearly 400billion yuan

downstream application fields: the proportion of automobiles has slowly decreased to about 1/3, and the proportion of emerging application fields such as electronics and light industry manufacturing has continued to increase.

the automotive industry has always been the largest application of industrial robots, but its proportion has been declining slowly both globally and domestically. The growth rate of the electronic industry is rapid, and the domestic sales growth rate in 17 years is as high as 79%, which has surpassed the automobile to become the largest application industry. Other fields such as metal and light industry manufacturing are also growing rapidly, and domestic robots account for a relatively high proportion of applications in industries other than automobiles, and have more advantages in non-standard automation equipment, which is expected to overtake in curves

body and parts: domestic robots currently account for less than 1/3 of the market and are scattered, but they have significant cost-effective advantages. The increase in the number and proportion of domestic parts is expected to drive the development of domestic parts in the future.

at present, foreign brands in the field of body and core parts maintain considerable technical and channel advantages, and the market share is high. However, with the increase in the proportion of emerging application fields, there are still opportunities for the development of independent brands in body and core parts. For downstream integrated applications, enterprises with scale advantages and customer advantages deserve attention. For ontology enterprises, supply chain and channel are very important; For upstream core parts enterprises, it is very important to accumulate early technology and enter the supply system of core robot ontology enterprises

from the perspective of future trends, we are optimistic about two paths: 1. Emerging fields are more sensitive to price. Domestic robots quickly enter the market with high cost performance, which will promote them to replace machines faster. The upstream parts manufacturers supporting the domestic robot body, especially the reducer and servo manufacturers, are expected to rapidly increase the volume and improve the industrial competitiveness, which is expected to make great changes in the future industry pattern; 2. Stand on the shoulders of giants to carry out imitation research, achieve breakthroughs in core areas through sustained high R & D investment in energy conservation and emission reduction, enjoy industrial upgrading Dividends with high technical barriers, and realize domestic substitution for similar foreign products

investment suggestions: the valuation advantage of the primary market is obvious, and high growth enterprises with good business layout are concerned.

at present, there are still few pure industrial robot targets in the capital market, and more are concentrated in the downstream application integration field. Scarcity makes the capital market hot. The valuation of the secondary market is nearly twice that of the primary market. High quality enterprises are also easier to use the capital market to achieve leapfrog development. It is suggested to focus on downstream application enterprises with good layout in emerging application fields, and ontology and component manufacturers with good cost performance and prominent cost advantages

focus on the target:

as for downstream integrators, it is recommended to pay attention to excellent enterprises with scale and customer advantages, Heshi Technology (), after finding the accuracy of the experimental machine, Shichun intelligence (), Zhongshe intelligence (), aocoste (); For the robot body, it is suggested to pay attention to Bronte (), robot (), which has channels and supplies, and thus has the advantage of porous structural stress chain as a porogen; For upstream parts, Huichuan Technology (), Laifu harmonic and essence with technical and customer advantages are recommended

risk tip: the key technology bottleneck cannot break through the risk; The risk of deterioration of competition in the robot body and parts market; Robot penetration in emerging applications is less than expected

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